It seems Amit Shah will be named as the next President of the BJP. This apparently is to reward him for the BJP’s excellent performance in UP in the 2014 LS elections.
I have no problems if Amit Shah is elevated to this position. He seems like a capable person. Yet, I do have a problem of giving him credit for the BJP’s performance in UP.
Why so? This is a sort of problem we often discuss in the introductory class in Research Design and Causal Inference. The core issue is: How to assess the claim that an “intervention” (Amit Shah) has had a causal impact on the observed outcome (BJP’s performance in UP)? These sorts of questions are routinely examined in testing for the efficacy of new drugs. Unfortunately we cannot undertake field experiments/RCTs in the context of 2014 LS elections. We can, however, think of “matching” samples with the objective to compare the outcome in the “treated sample” with outcomes in the ones that were not treated.
Think of two states where the BJP performed quite poorly (in terms of number of seats) in the 2009 LS elections. Assume Amit Shah is assigned to oversee 2014 LS elections in State 1 while somebody else is assigned the same job in State 2. Think of two scenarios.
Scenario 1: The BJP’s performance in State 1 is vastly superior to its performance in State 2. Only in this situation can Amit Shah be given credit for BJP’s performance in State 1.
Scenario 2: The BJP has done equally well in both State 1 and State 2. Can Shah be given credit still? He cannot. Because the presence and absence of Shah does not correlate with the BJP’s performance across these states. One can even fit a regression and I’m quite sure that the Shah “dummy” will not be statistically significant in explaining the BJP’s performance.
BJP certainly did very well in UP (from 15/80 in 2009 to 71/80 in 2014). But it did very well in several other states where Amit Shah had no role, and where in the previous elections, it has done as dismally as it had in UP. Think of Haryana where the BJP did well (from 0/10 in 2009 to 7/10 in 2014). Think of Bihar. The BJP was the junior partner in the coalition with Nitish Kumar. Nitish walked out and the BJP essentially fought the 2014 LS alone with LJP as the junior partner. See the performance in Assam (from 4/14 in 2009 to 7/14 in 2014), Delhi (from 0/7 in 2009 to 7/7 in 2014) or J&K (from 0/6 in 2009 to 3/6 in 2014). Or, see the dramatic increase in vote share in West Bengal (from 6% in 2009 to 17% in 2014).
What contributed to the BJP’s performance across several states was the Modi wave. Roughly speaking, thanks to Modi, the BJP’s national vote share increased from 20% to 30%. This is what the Modi brand has done to the BJP.
It does not mean that Amit Shah should not be named as the BJP’s next President. He should be but for a different reason.
Given the context of Indian politics and Modi’s path to power, it will be dysfunctional to have two power centers; one controlling the government and the other controlling the party. If JP Nadda, Om Mathur or somebodyelse who owes their position to Rajnath Singh or Gadkari or the RSS were to be named as the BJP President, this would create a problem. It would force Modi always to look for Rajnath Singh’s/Gakari’s next move to ease him out become the PM himself.
Modi needs to be given a free hand. He should not worry about his own party stabbing him in the back.
Indians want good governance. As opinion polls and exit polls show, good governance was the top reason for favoring Modi. If Modi wants to deliver, he will need to take tough decisions such as the Railway price hike. Hence, he needs his own man as the BJP President.
In sum, Amit Shah is the appropriate person as the next BJP President not because he is responsible for the BJP’s victory in UP. Amit Shah needs to be made BJP President because he enjoys Modi’s complete trust and will make sure that the BJP supports the tough decisions Modi will need to make.
An afterthought: I think Rajnath Singh will do well as the next CM of UP, and Nitin Gadkari as the next CM of Maharasthra. Think about it….