The Bukhari Episode and the Guest List Politics by Aseem Prakash

On the face of it, why should anyone object if Imam Syed Ahmad Bukhari wants to invite X but not Y for the function anointing his son, Shaban Bukhari, as the next Naib Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid? After all, Imam Bukhari claims that this “dastaar bandi” (turban-tying ceremony) is his private function. If so, he should have the autonomy to choose the guest list.

The problem is that Imam Bukhari decided not to make this into a private event. He turned this into a public event and sought to make a public statement via his guest list. He unsuccessfully tried to claim that: (1) he represents Indian Muslims, (2) Muslims are unhappy with Modi, (3) Muslims have a higher regard for Nawaz Sharif than for Modi.

Given the criticism the “guest list” has been subjected to, this move seems to have backfired, quite badly if I may say. Eventually it is like, “Choube jee bane gaye the chabey, per rah gaye dubey.”

Whether or not he regrets his decision, we will probably never know. But Imam Bukhari’s guest list politics has raised important issues.

If Indians dislike Vanshvaad in politics, why should Vanshvaad be tolerated in religious matters? This issue needs to be examined and confronted, especially by the Muslim community. For a while, the Bukhari family has been in conflict with the Delhi Wakf board regarding Jama Masjid and its management. In the 1970s, the conflict became violent which led to rioting and deaths. Imam Bukhari’s father was arrested during emergency. When he was released, he had become a political figure (in some measure, with HN Bahuguna’s help) and even started issuing fatwas on elections. Hence, the claim of the Imam that he has the implicit authority to articulate the preferences of Indian Muslims is of a recent vintage. This claim should be and has been contested.

I am very pleased to see that several prominent Muslim leaders have unequivocally criticized the guest list politics and the coronation of the son (incidentally, the custom is that the elder son is appointed the Naib Imam. Imam Bukhari decided to ignore his elder son and appoint his 19 year old son who does not have the requisite training in theology). They have also criticized the invitation to Nawaz Sharif and not to Modi. The Imam’s own brother, Yahya Bukhari, put it eloquently: “After being ignored by Muslims of the country, he is trying to make a comeback to the media notice. By not extending invitation to PM Modi, he is trying to become messiah of Muslims. But he must understand he cannot make Muslims fools and it was proved when the community did not pay heed to his call to support Congress in the general elections… If he likes the Pakistan PM so much and dislikes our prime minister, he should hold the coronation ceremony in Pakistan.”

Well put. I am happy to see how the mood in India (especially the younger generation) towards communal politics is changing. People are now less tolerant of the hate speech of Togadia, Raj Thackeray, and Bukhari. In contrast to the condemnation reserved for hate politics, Swatch Bharat Abhiyan has attracted participation from Indians across religions. This is the way of the future. We need leaders to build bridges, not walls.

I’d be curious to see who eventually attends the coronation ceremony. Here is my guess.

Sonia and Rahul -– probably not.
Digvijay Singh — probably yes.
Akiliseh Yadav -– may be? (given the need to keep Mohamamd Azam Khan happy)
Laloo Yadav — probably yes.
Sharad Yadav — probably yes.

The Day After: Maharashtra, Haryana and Beyond by Aseem Prakash

The BJP’s showing in the assembly elections is impressive. In Haryana, it increased its tally from 4 in 2009 to 47 in 2014, thereby securing absolute majority in a house of 90 members. Its vote share increased from 9% in 2009 to 32% in 2014. In Maharashtra, BJP secured 28% of vote (versus 14% in 2009) and 122 seats (46 in 2009). It will need to form an alliance with either the Shiv Sena, or even with Shard Pawar’s NCP.

How might one interpret these results?

1. The Modi wave continues. In both Haryana and Maharashtra, the BJP did not project any leader as its next CM. The BJP sought votes in Modi’s name and voters have responded positively. Thus, the Modi brand remains viable even in state politics.

2. In the previous by-polls, the BJP did poorly. Why? One reason is that Modi did not campaign in by-polls. Thus, it is now clear that “BJP is Modi and Modi is BJP” (with apologies to DK Barua). Indian politics has again become incredibly person-centric after a gap of about 4 decades.

3. Regional parties, beware! Hitherto, the BJP played a second fiddle to the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, and Chautala’s INLD in Haryana. No longer. Recall, about 3 weeks ago, the Shiv Sena was not willing to concede even 125 seats to the BJP. Now the Shiv Sena’s tally stands at 63, about half of the BJP. Raj Thackeray MNS has done very poorly and secured 1 seat only (13 previously).

4. The BJP has benefited from multi-cornered contests. Its vote share in Maharashtra is 28% (roughly 1 in 4 voters supported the BJP) but its seat share is 42%. Similarly, in Haryana, the BJP’s vote share is 33% while its seat share is 52%. Hence it is important not to over interpret the BJP’s victory.

5. Regional parties should feel worried about a resurgent BJP. Akali Dal, in particular, needs to be worried on two counts: first, they supported Chautala in Haryana going against the coalition dharma (payback time?). This comes over an above their inability to “deliver”a win to Jaitely in Amristar (causing a major embarrassment), and the “panga” they have taken with Navjot Singh Siddhu, the most visible Sikh face of the BJP. Second, the Badal family is unpopular in Punjab as was evident in the Lok Shaba elections. Hence, the Akali Dal has become a political liability for the BJP. If Modi retains his popularity, I predict that the BJP and the Akali Dal alliance will dissolve in the next elections (I also predict that the BJP will not support the Akali Dal in the DGPC elections).

6. Perhaps the biggest challenge the BJP will face is to recruit popular as well as competent CMs in Haryana and Maharashtra . Given Modi’s towering personality, there is always a temptation for Modi and/or Amit Shah to micro-manage the affairs of these states, especially, if the BJP decides on CMs without much mass support. This is going to provide disastrous for the BJP. Opposition parties might be down, but they are not out. Particularly in Maharashtra, the BJP will need to confront Uddhav Thackeray and the Pawar family, both being formidable rivals. The BJP will need somebody akin to Shivraj Chouhan, Raman Singh or Manohar Parrikar in these states. Anandiben type will not work.

7. I suspect Delhi assembly elections will be held soon, so that the BJP can ride on the momentum of Haryana and Maharashtra elections. In Delhi as well, the BJP does not have public face to be projected as the next CM. This can prove problematic both during and post-elections. Kejriwal might be down, but he is not out. Plus, the puzzling stand of the BJP on black money has given him an important issue to focus on.

8. I hope Modi can expand the Union Cabinet. It makes no sense that Defense and Finance ministries are held by the same individual who is not keeping good health. Yes, this arrangement allows the PM to run these ministries by proxy, but PM will need to unlearn his instincts for micro-management. Plus, important regions lack adequate representation in the Cabinet. This needs to be corrected.

2014 Nobel Peace Prize by Aseem Prakash

The 2014 Nobel Peace Prize to Kailash Satyarthi and Malala Yousafzai is most appropriate. It recognizes their tremendous contribution to the cause of children’s rights.

Yet, in its press release the Prize committee provided a twisted logic for this prize. It noted, “Nobel Committee regards it as an important point for a Hindu and a Muslim, an Indian and a Pakistani, to join in a common struggle for education and against extremism.” This is a bizarre statement. Satyarthi’s struggle to end exploitation of children has nothing to do with him being a Hindu. Exploitation of children needs to be condemned, irrespective of whether the perpetrators or the victims are Hindus, Muslims, or belong to any other religion. Similarly, Satyarthi’s contributions have no relationship with or bearing on Indo-Pak relationship.

Malala’s contribution to the cause of children’s education neither has a bearing on nor is motivated by Indo-Pak tensions. She symbolizes the right of any child, irrespective of gender, to acquire education. She is celebrated for taking a stand against religious extremists (such as the Pakistani Taliban) who deny women these rights.

Kailash Satyarthi is a celebrated individual in India. He was felicitated by the Prime Minster in person and by several other politicians. Malala, in contrast, is a persona non-grata in Pakistan (she lives in Birmingham, UK). Extremist groups have not only criticized the Prize being awarded to her but have also threatened to kill her, if she were to visit Pakistan. In response to the Prize, Jamat-ul-Ahrar (an offshoot of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan) has termed Malala an “agent of kuffar” (infidels).

Malala seems to suffer the fate similar to Pakistan’s’ first Nobel Laureate, Abdus Salam. Professor Salam became a persona non-grata in Pakistan by virtue of belonging to the Qadiani Ahmadiyya sect. In 1974, Professor Salam left Pakistan to after the Pakistani parliament passed the constitutional amendment declaring Ahmadiyas to be non-Muslims. Since then, religious extremists in Pakistan have unleashed violence on the Ahmadiya community, often under the garb of the blasphemy/apostasy law.

The Nobel Committee has framed the award of this prize to Satyarathi and Yousafzai as a way to appease Hindus and Muslims (the implicit argument being that awarding the Prize to only one individual might upset the community to which the other belongs). It committed the second great folly by framing it as a way to appease both India and Pakistan, clearly forgetting that India is a secular country with the second largest Muslim population after Indonesia.

In effect, the Nobel Prize committee has communalized and politicized this prize. It has degraded the contributions of Satyarathi and Malala for children’s rights. It is not surprising that this sort of bizarre framing has fueled suspicions about the intention of the Prize committee. Zhao Gancheng, director of the Centre for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, told state-run Global Times: “Her propaganda coincides with the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. And the West is using Malala’s story to publicise the bright side of their effort of military presence in the other countries, such as improving the chances of women receiving education as well as their political participation.”

By-elections: the Aftermath by Aseem Prakash

Few will contest the fact the recent by-elections have shocked the BJP. It lost ground everywhere, even in Gujarat and Rajasthan. These results come on top of its poor performance in Bihar by-elections and Uttrakhand by-elections. What might be the lessons from these political events?

The Amit Shah hype should be over. As I have argued previously, the BJP won LS seats in UP due to the Modi wave, not because of some grand political strategy of Amit Shah. The test of my argument is evident in UP by-elections. Modi did not campaign. If Amit Shah is such a Chankya, why did the BJP perform so poorly – it even lost seats it held previously.

While one can debate whether the Modi wave is over (as Arvind Kejriwal says), the BJP must understand that it cannot take the electorate for granted. It needs to deliver both in the short term and in the long term. Basic issues like food inflation need to be addressed. Strolls along the Sabarmati, interviews with Fareed Zakaria, or major speeches might impress the chattering classes of New Delhi and are important in their own right. But they do not provide any relief to the common Indian who is struggling to make his/her ends meet. Political parties that neglect the common man, do so at their peril.

PM Modi must realize that he cannot run India the way he ran Gujarat. He will need to trust people and appoint competent individuals to his cabinet even when they are not 100% with him. The current cabinet suggests that either the BJP is populated by incompetent MPs or the PM is so insecure that he rather have a few overworked minsters (Jaitley and Gadkari) and a few incompetent ones (Smriti Irani), instead of including experienced and thoughtful ones.

Similarly, the BJP needs to build a cadre of strong leaders. To do so, the Delhi-centric approach to party management must end. Without strong state leaders, BJP will lose ground, at least in state politics. Given the federal structure in which India functions, without cooperation from states, the degrees of freedom available to the Central government are rather limited. Building a strong state level-party organization means that the PM will need to learn to share power by appointing strong local leaders to his Cabinet.

BJP will need to stop the toxic “love Jihad” rhetoric. I’m glad the PM has made it clear that he considers Muslims to be as patriotic as anybody else. But this is not enough. He needs to rein in his party and if possible, the RSS as well (the poisonous statement Togadia made on Garba dance). Indians voted for good governance and tolerant order. The PM and the BJP must make it clear through their words and deeds that communalism has no place in Indian politics. The quick reaction to floods in Kashmir was wonderful and showed that the PM is seeking to send a strong message of inclusiveness. BJP needs to do the same.

Swachh Bharat Abhiyan: building upon past mistakes by Anil K. Gupta

An extremely appreciable focus on providing toilet in every school can
be a game changing intervention for improving public sanitation and
in directly for educational enrolment and retention, particularly of
girls. I also admire the impatience with which central government has
started action already through MHRD. However, it will do no harm if
the planners will read a report on water quality of Central Ground
Water Board, 2010 and notice how ill-considered policies implemented
in haste could sometimes do more damage than good. Shallow hand pumps
and tube wells were promoted through public policy and problem of
arsenic and a few other contaminants have led to significant health
damage in different parts of the country. Deep tube wells did not have
this problem. Poor people could not afford deep tubewell even after
the source of the problem was diagnosed. They suffer more even today.

Should we replicate a standard design of toilet all over the country?
Will that be worse than not making any toilet? Should we not consult
groundwater board, meteorological department, All India Soil Survey
Organization, and other such agencies to look at geo-climatic zoning
and identify boundary conditions for the kind of toilet design that
might be suitable for different regions?. The regions having high or
low groundwater and in different soil condition with varying extent of
water availability will not be served by a common design. Just the
physics of the toilet pot can determine how much water is required for
cleaning the excreta. There are designs which require just about 2-3
litres water. In some areas dry deep pit might be useful.
Of course, there is also a lot of experience available with various
institutions which may have learned from the mistakes of the past. We
can also launch a countrywide competition for location specific
designs of toilet at low cost.

The use of human urine and excreta as input into small biogas plants
can also be tried at a few locations. We must understand that given
shortage of water in different parts of the country, a design which
needs 10-12 litres for cleaning ( as unfortunately majority of the
designs need) will get clogged in no time. We don’t want to create
toilets which will not be serviceable round the year. Need to clean
them up will have to be internalized by the students as a cultural
value. DRDO has bio-toilets which is a very interesting and viable
technology and must be incorporated in the Abhiyan wherever feasible.
Already DRDO has licensed it to more than 40 entreprenurs on non-exclusive
basis.

Whenever anyone used to come to Sabarmati ashram to join the freedom
struggle, Gnadhiji asked him to first pick up the bucket and broom and
clean the toilets. It took them a while to understand the connection
between this act and the freedom struggle. Swachh Bharat movement must
succeed. A weekly exercise to clean environment within and outside
the school will help. The Land Army movement by Dr K M Munshi began
with cleaning clogged drains in Chhatarpur village on the outskirts of
Delhi. We need a similar movement to mobilise the youth and village
community. In prosperous villages, generating funding for school
toilets from within the village will help. Community ownership of
assets ensures their maintenance. One lesson from the people’s
movement of making lacs of check dams and farm ponds in Saurashtra in
Gujarat is that initially, 70 per cent contribution was by people and
remaining by government. Later the ratio was reversed.

It is well known that in some areas dalit children are forced to clean
the toilets and that should be a seriously tracked and censured.
Diversified designs, community ownership, mobilising industrial
contribution under CSR and tracking location specific fit between
toilet design and local conditions (geo-chemical, drainage and
hydrological) need to be considered.

Swachh Bharat Abhiyan must learn the right lessons from the mistakes
of the past and create a democratic, efficient and effective model of
solving a national problem in a time bound manner. Local innovations
will make program more participative and cost effective.

Interpreting Assembly Bye-Election Results by Aseem Prakash

The results from the by-elections do not look pretty for the BJP. These come on top of its disastrous showing in the Uttrakhand by-elections last month. Of course, the BJP spin masters will try to explain away these results: local issues, low election turnout, Modi did not campaign, etc. etc. There is some truth here but I hope PM Modi understands the message the electorate is sending him.

Is the the Modi magic on the wane, as Uddahav Thackeray gleefully suggests? Is the over-promise of “acche din anne wale hain” coming back to haunt the BJP? One might argue that the clearing up the mess left by the UPA will take time. Yet, the Indian electorate may not have the patience. They ask: have the prices of key commodities come down? What specific steps have been taken to improve the quality of life of the average citizen? The BJP needs to quickly deliver on issues which the average person can relate to.

There is also a communication problem. PM Modi seems aloof and not connecting with people (August 15 day speech being a notable exception). Public engagement cannot be limited to tweeting. Bill Clinton’s dictum of a “permanent campaign” might be useful here. The PM needs to be on the road and tell people directly about his achievements, policies, and vision. The citizens elected him to be the PM, not the Cabinet Secretary.

To elaborate on the above point, PM Modi is coming across as a micro-manager. His priority seems to be to exercise direct control over the bureaucracy instead of working through his cabinet colleagues. He is emerging as the first with no equals. I am surprised that he has not expanded his cabinet. Important states remain unrepresented. A single individual holds both Finance and Defense; are the MPs of the BJP so incompetent? Or, does he not trust his own party?

One might argue that BJP’s impressive LS performance can be attributed to the fact that the opposition vote was divided. BJP spin doctors will suggest that the cohabitation of Nitish and Lalu is temporary. While this is true, one should look at the vote share as well. In the 10 assembly segments for which the by-elections were held, the vote share of the NDA dropped from 45.3% in the LS elections to 37.3% in the bye-elections, a drop of eight percentage points. At the same time, the vote share of the RJD, JD(U) and Congress increased from 40.3% in the LS elections to 44.9% in the bye-elections. If future politics is going to be defined by anti-BJPism instead of anti-Congressism, the BJP is in trouble. While I doubt the Bihar co-habitation experiment can be replicated in UP between SP and BSP, it might be possible is several other states and the BJP needs to think carefully about the emerging scenario.

Now some good news for the BJP. They are not the only ones at the receiving end. AAP candidates lost their deposits in both assembly bye-elections in Punjab after their impressive performance in LS elections. Take the case of Patiala. The AAP won this seat in the LS elections. But the Assembly constituency for which the bye-election was held, the votes it polled dropped from 34,000 to 6,000 — although Arvind Kejriwal actively campaigned for the AAP candidates for both these seats (and Modi did not campaign in Bihar). The lesson is that the electorate cannot be taken for granted by the BJP, the AAP or any other party. This is good news for democracy!

Some speculations
I predict that Rajnath Singh will be sent to UP as the next CM. From the TV footage I see, he seems quite unhappy. By removing Varun Gandhi from the post of BJP General Sectary, who is in Rajnath Singh’s camp, Modi sent a clear message. Rajnath Singh as UP CM will be a win-win for both. Rajnath Singh will have his own fiefdom from where he can plot his next move. For Modi, there will be one less competitor at the Center to be paranoid about. If my predictions were to come true, I just hope Modi does not award Arun Jaitley with a third ministry!

Why is the government allowing the controversy over Sai Baba to fester? The remarks of Dwarka Shankaracharya, Swami Swaroopanand Saraswati, are distasteful and provocative. Here is my prediction. This controversy will present PM Modi the opportunity to display his secular credentials. In any case, Swami Swaroopanand Saraswati is not a BJP supporter. I suspect the controversy will fester a bit more (note the utterings at the recently concluded Dharam Sansad) and then there will be a crackdown (recall the removal of illegal roadside shrines in Gandhinagar). This will be politically brilliant!

Redesigning primary schools: Beyond toilets by Anil K. Gupta

It is extremely encouraging to see the emphasis the Prime Minister put on the provision of toilets in every primary school. He exhorted the Members of Parliament as well as corporations to allocate their resources at least for one year to provide toilets in all the six lacs primary and secondary schools [20 per cent of the total]. The schools in the cities may not need the support but in villages a large number of schools may need it. This can be done in one year. A mission mode approach will ensure that while meeting this goal, one does not ignore certain other basic needs too.

A large number of primary schools have only one hand pump. By fitting a simple pipe with six taps to the hand pump, within `.400 per pump, we can increase the availability of tax seven times. We came across such an example in Jharkhand. Most schools don’t have boundary wall, play ground, library, educational posters on the wall, benches for the children and clean drinking water facility. One doesn’t have to mention that in many schools the regular teachers don’t go at all and in some, they outsource teaching to temporary teachers hired by them. We have come across such schools all over the country.

My colleague, Prof. Vijaya Sherry Chand has developed an outstanding database of innovative and experimental teachers viz.,teachersastransformers.org. Several teachers have tried to improve quality of education through their own efforts. Some of them have mobilised resources from community and some have taken donations from rich alumni as well as other companies. If donations for specific activities for primary and secondary education can be exempt 100 per cent for three years with very strong penalties for false claims or improper utilization, we can create excellent facilities in each school in the next three years. Every investment should be uploaded on educatedindia portal and photographs of changes made should be uploaded. The contact numbers of the teachers, donors and community leaders should be given in each case so that independent verification can be made by the tax authorities through random checks.

Ideally, each school should also have a playground, lab, library, workshop and a tinkering room where local artisans, mechanics and retired engineers or other professionals can work with children to build their capacity to experiment and innovate. Hundred hours of such service can entitle a volunteer for certain medical and transport benefits so that those people who are needy and have service orientation come forward to spend time with children. The volunteers who do not want any compensation can be recognized for their outstanding service on the independence day by each village, taluka and district panchayat.

One needs three major voluntary service corps for innovation, education, health and sanitation. Every citizen should be encouraged to opt for one of the three voluntary corps so that everybody feels part of a nation building process. There are many countries which have compulsory military service to prepare citizens for national defence and emergencies. Time has come to encourage people come forward to contribute rather than only crib about various anomalies. This should be through the involvement of all political parties so that nobody works at cross-purpose.

Dr.K.L.Munshi had talked about Land Army way back in 1952. The first unit of the Land Army comprising students from Delhi University had cleaned up the Chhatarpur drain [in highly clogged and stinking condition] at that time. We need similar movement for mobilizing masses to transform social imagination and engagement with persistent problems.

Just a day before Rural Development Minister and Dr.A.P.J.Abdul Kalam appreciated the contribution of the National Innovation Foundation [NIF] and Honey Bee Network by launching Bank of Ideas and Innovations. If the budgetary announcements of District Innovation, Incubation and Entrepreneurship Centres have to become the part of the National Innovation Service [ignored by the previous government], then the NIF can play an active role in fertilizing the imagination of local innovators and community members for making schools the hub of innovative activities.

The Independence Day Speech by Aseem Prakash

Until August 14, it seemed that Narendra Modi had lost his magic touch. I wondered about the “mon vrata” of the great communicator. Modi seemed to act like a head clerk instead of a visionary leader. He was not able to (or decided not to) recruit solid individuals to his Council of Ministers. For example, it was puzzling that a single individual continues to holds two extremely important portfolios, Defense and Finance. Can Modi not trust beyond Amit Shah and Arun Jaitely? Or, is he a micro-manager and cannot delegate? It almost seemed that the BJP lacks talented and experienced administrators. The BJP’s drubbing in Uttrakhand by-elections seemed to suggest that the Modi magic is no longer working. On August 12, the venerable New York Times carried a major story entitled “Narendra Modi’s Quiet Beginning Dims India’s Hopes for Swift Change.” Several pundits and self-proclaimed campaign advisors to Modi were quoted as expressing their disappointment.

His August 15 speech was a game changer for both symbolic and substantive reasons. First, the symbolic aspects. Doing away with bullet proof glass projected enormous confidence. Speaking extemporaneously was a brilliant idea as well, especially given the possibility for the media-types to distort and misinterpret. Yet, Modi decided not to rely on a teleprompter or written text. In addition to demonstrating his command over facts, and that he is in charge, his speech reflected sincerity of purpose. It had the flavor of FDR’s “fireside chats”.

The speech was important for several substantive reasons as well. He was magnanimous towards his predecessors. He focused on real issues, not the superficial ones that Delhi’s chattering classes tend to favor. His emphasis on cleanliness and on toilets was wonderful and so was his criticism of casteism and communalism. On rapes and the declining sex ratio, he scolded the people of India, and correctly so. While he spoke from his heart, he laid out his vision clearly. His logic was compelling.

What next? How will Modi translate “zero defect, zero effect” into actual policies? Clearly, there are tradeoffs — how will he make them? For example, will the government allow mining of coal in forested areas? How about global warming? How will the government enforce pollution laws? These are real challenges.

August 15 speech has rekindled the magic which swept the BJP to power. The expectations of people are sky high. I hope the Modi government can deliver.

On Amit Shah’s Elevation as the next BJP President by Aseem Prakash

It seems Amit Shah will be named as the next President of the BJP. This apparently is to reward him for the BJP’s excellent performance in UP in the 2014 LS elections.

I have no problems if Amit Shah is elevated to this position. He seems like a capable person. Yet, I do have a problem of giving him credit for the BJP’s performance in UP.

Why so? This is a sort of problem we often discuss in the introductory class in Research Design and Causal Inference. The core issue is: How to assess the claim that an “intervention” (Amit Shah) has had a causal impact on the observed outcome (BJP’s performance in UP)? These sorts of questions are routinely examined in testing for the efficacy of new drugs. Unfortunately we cannot undertake field experiments/RCTs in the context of 2014 LS elections. We can, however, think of “matching” samples with the objective to compare the outcome in the “treated sample” with outcomes in the ones that were not treated.

Think of two states where the BJP performed quite poorly (in terms of number of seats) in the 2009 LS elections. Assume Amit Shah is assigned to oversee 2014 LS elections in State 1 while somebody else is assigned the same job in State 2. Think of two scenarios.

Scenario 1: The BJP’s performance in State 1 is vastly superior to its performance in State 2. Only in this situation can Amit Shah be given credit for BJP’s performance in State 1.

Scenario 2: The BJP has done equally well in both State 1 and State 2. Can Shah be given credit still? He cannot. Because the presence and absence of Shah does not correlate with the BJP’s performance across these states. One can even fit a regression and I’m quite sure that the Shah “dummy” will not be statistically significant in explaining the BJP’s performance.

BJP certainly did very well in UP (from 15/80 in 2009 to 71/80 in 2014). But it did very well in several other states where Amit Shah had no role, and where in the previous elections, it has done as dismally as it had in UP. Think of Haryana where the BJP did well (from 0/10 in 2009 to 7/10 in 2014). Think of Bihar. The BJP was the junior partner in the coalition with Nitish Kumar. Nitish walked out and the BJP essentially fought the 2014 LS alone with LJP as the junior partner. See the performance in Assam (from 4/14 in 2009 to 7/14 in 2014), Delhi (from 0/7 in 2009 to 7/7 in 2014) or J&K (from 0/6 in 2009 to 3/6 in 2014). Or, see the dramatic increase in vote share in West Bengal (from 6% in 2009 to 17% in 2014).

What contributed to the BJP’s performance across several states was the Modi wave. Roughly speaking, thanks to Modi, the BJP’s national vote share increased from 20% to 30%. This is what the Modi brand has done to the BJP.

It does not mean that Amit Shah should not be named as the BJP’s next President. He should be but for a different reason.

Given the context of Indian politics and Modi’s path to power, it will be dysfunctional to have two power centers; one controlling the government and the other controlling the party. If JP Nadda, Om Mathur or somebodyelse who owes their position to Rajnath Singh or Gadkari or the RSS were to be named as the BJP President, this would create a problem. It would force Modi always to look for Rajnath Singh’s/Gakari’s next move to ease him out become the PM himself.

Modi needs to be given a free hand. He should not worry about his own party stabbing him in the back.

Indians want good governance. As opinion polls and exit polls show, good governance was the top reason for favoring Modi. If Modi wants to deliver, he will need to take tough decisions such as the Railway price hike. Hence, he needs his own man as the BJP President.

In sum, Amit Shah is the appropriate person as the next BJP President not because he is responsible for the BJP’s victory in UP. Amit Shah needs to be made BJP President because he enjoys Modi’s complete trust and will make sure that the BJP supports the tough decisions Modi will need to make.

An afterthought: I think Rajnath Singh will do well as the next CM of UP, and Nitin Gadkari as the next CM of Maharasthra. Think about it….

Mr. Aam Aadmi moves to a palatial bungalow by Aseem Prakash

Tasting power is dangerous. In addition to getting used to throwing your weight around, having throngs of chamchas around you, driven around in government cars, one tends to get used to spacious government accommodation. Reverting back to the “civilian mode” is difficult and painful.

Apparently, self-proclaimed Mr. Aam Aadmi, Arvind Kejriwal, is moving to one of the most exclusive areas of Delhi, Civil Lines. He will be renting the house, 4-B Flagstaff Road, owned by Naren Jain. Initially, the rent was Rs 1 but after the media story, it seems the rent will be higher. I grew up in the area and vaguely remember the house. Kejriwal has expensive but good taste.

Arguably, this is a transaction between two private individuals and should not be subjected public scrutiny. If Naren Jain is willing to charge Rs 1 as “rent” instead of charging the real market value of several lakhs, this is his problem.

Of course, if a Congress or BJP politician were do that, the AAP would scream corruption. They would ask and rightly so: what is the quid pro quo? But if the “party supremo “(this is phrase the AAP’s self proclaimed Chankya, Yogendra Yadav, used to describe Kejriwal) does it, it is ok.

But Kejriwal is supposed to be aam aadmi. He has made a lot of song and dance about it. He insists on driving his Maruti Wagon; for his swearing-in ceremony, he took the Delhi Metro. So what is happening? I think symptoms of affluenza starting emerging within a few days of being named as the CM of Delhi. Kejriwal wanted a bit more comfortable lifestyle; the aam aadmi stuff was not good enough. Initially, he wanted two spacious flats in Tilak Lane to be joined so that he could reside there. Media furor forced him to back track and he had stick to one flat only. Poor soul; world simply will not allow him to have fun.

Kejriwal tries to mimic Mahatma Gandhi. See the the topi he wears, his reaction to getting slapped, etc. Yet, the two could not be more different. Gandhi walked the talk. Kejriwal only talks.

While I’m surprised how quickly Kejriwal has gotten used to the trappings of power, perhaps, I should not be surprised. In the last three to four decades, most political leaders who emerged from anti-corruption movements including the JP movement have quickly succumbed to the temptations of power. Communist parties were supposed to represent the working class. Yet, their leaders had lavish lifestyles.

Those espousing the cause of the common man are quite susceptible to adopt the life style of the elite, given the opportunity. Kejriwal is no exception. But in any case, enjoy the bungalow!